Xuan Gu Bao·2025-12-22 23:41Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing a simultaneous "shutdown wave" and "price increase wave" from late 2025 to early 2026, with major packaging paper companies like Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng initiating large-scale maintenance and capacity reduction [1] - Major white card and cultural paper manufacturers, including Bohui, APP, and Universal Paper, have collectively announced price increases, highlighting differences in cost structures and supply-demand relationships among various paper types [1] Production and Pricing Dynamics - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to reduce production by approximately 310,000 tons in the first quarter, while Shanying International will halt 12 corrugated paper machines for 5-10 days in January [1] - Lee & Man Paper will conduct maintenance on five paper machines in Guangdong for 15-22 days in February, driven by a decline in waste paper prices, which have dropped by 260-400 RMB/ton since December [1] - Bohui Paper and APP will raise industrial paper prices by 200 RMB/ton starting January 1, 2026, while Universal Paper will increase prices for white and food card paper by the same amount in mid-December, due to high costs of wood pulp and energy [1] Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as an additional benefit for the industry, as it will lower the import costs of pulp, thereby enhancing company profits [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Datong Securities indicates that the paper industry is benefiting from a "price increase bonus, supply contraction, and policy regulation," which strengthens the supply-demand balance [2] - CICC anticipates a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with the capacity expansion of boxboard and corrugated paper nearing completion, potentially leading to a recovery in capacity utilization and price levels [2] - CITIC Securities notes that the appreciation of the RMB will decrease import costs for raw materials like pulp, improving gross margins in processing and trading sectors [2] Company Developments - Bohui Paper announced a price increase of 200 RMB/ton for industrial paper starting January 1, 2026, and plans to expand its chemical pulp production capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons with a total investment of 1.70066 billion RMB [3] - Sun Paper, a leading player in the domestic paper industry, is accelerating the construction of several projects, including a 400,000-ton specialty paper project and a 300,000-ton living paper project, expected to enter trial production in Q3-Q4 of 2025 [3]