1970年以来第39次，美元出现“金叉”，还是极为罕见的那种

Core Viewpoint - The recent technical buy signal triggered by the US Dollar Index (DXY) suggests a potential upward trend for both US stocks and crude oil, with historical data indicating a strong likelihood of dollar appreciation following this signal [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Index Analysis - The DXY experienced its 39th golden cross on December 19, indicating a bullish signal as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average [4][7]. - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the dollar index has a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [7][8]. - This particular golden cross is notable as it is the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, leading to an 80% probability of dollar appreciation in the following days [3][8]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index typically shows mixed performance in the initial phase after the golden cross, but tends to strengthen after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [11]. - Crude oil has a perfect record following the golden cross, with a 100% probability of rising 35 trading days later, averaging a gain of 9.07% [11]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit a neutral response to the dollar's golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of upward movement, indicating a divergence in traditional safe-haven assets [11].