Oppenheimer：美股“圣诞老人行情”已至，“一月效应”可期！

Group 1 - The "Santa Claus Rally" from December 24 to January 5 historically provides substantial returns for investors, with the S&P 500 index averaging a 1.6% increase during this period since 1928, and a 77% probability of rising over the past 97 years [1] - Oppenheimer's technical analysis indicates that when the S&P 500 index experiences a down year during the "Santa Claus Rally," it tends to average a 1% decline in the following three months, while an up year leads to an average increase of 2.6% [1] - The S&P 500 index is currently above its 200-day moving average, which historically correlates with an average increase of 1.2% in January when the opening price is above this trend line, compared to a 0.7% increase when below [1] Group 2 - January is typically the worst month for the momentum factor (SPMO), which tracks the performance of market leaders versus laggards, due to tax-loss harvesting strategies that lead to a rebound in previously underperforming stocks [2] - The "January Effect" suggests that stock market gains in January are often higher than in other months, particularly noted in small-cap stocks from the 1940s to the mid-1970s, although this effect has diminished since the early 2000s [4] - Theories explaining the "January Effect" include tax-loss harvesting, where investors sell losing positions in December to offset gains, and behavioral theories suggesting that individuals make financial decisions at the start of the new year, leading to increased investments [4]