经济学家宋清辉：2026全球经济或将进入局部紧缩期

Group 1 - The divergence in global central bank policies, with Japan raising interest rates, the European Central Bank holding steady, and the Bank of England cutting rates, may push the global economy into a localized contraction period [1][8] - The lack of a unified easing approach could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets [1][8] Group 2 - Recent U.S. employment data showed improvement, potentially linked to changes in tariff policies, but the impact of additional tariffs on prices has yet to be fully realized [6] - The U.S. economy is described as being in a "fragile balance," with cooling job markets weakening consumer wage growth [6][7] - There is an increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, influenced by poor employment and inflation indicators [6][7] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair supportive of rate cuts could further solidify this trend [6][7]