中国货币政策独立性度量及“三元悖论”适用性研究

Core Insights - The article analyzes the independence of China's monetary policy from both quantity and price perspectives, addressing the applicability of the "trilemma" and "dilemma" concepts [2][5] - It concludes that since 2022, China's quantity-based monetary policy independence has declined, while price-based independence has significantly improved [2][28] - The article suggests that allowing greater fluctuation in the RMB/USD exchange rate can enhance the independence of price-based monetary policy [2][28] Group 1: Monetary Policy Independence - The analysis indicates that controlling the correlation between economic cycles and inflation cycles, along with global common factors, aids in better identifying price-based monetary policy independence [2][28] - Since 2022, China's quantity-based monetary policy independence has decreased, but price-based monetary policy has achieved a significant level of independence [2][28] - The article highlights that the "trilemma" phenomenon in China has shown a central tendency since the Asian financial crisis, suggesting that a moderate relaxation of the RMB/USD exchange rate can enhance price-based monetary policy independence [2][28] Group 2: Impact of Global Monetary Policy - The article discusses the significant spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on global financial stability, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - It notes that while major economies have followed the Fed's lead, China's monetary policy has diverged, indicating a degree of independence [3][28] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining monetary policy independence in light of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the potential impacts on global financial markets [3][28] Group 3: Methodology and Contributions - The article constructs indices for both quantity-based and price-based monetary policy independence, improving the measurement of price-based independence by controlling for economic cycle synchronization and common factors [5][28] - It critiques existing literature for primarily focusing on interest rate independence and neglecting the significance of quantity-based monetary policy independence, especially in the context of China's transition [11][28] - The findings suggest that the current state of China's monetary policy independence is influenced by both domestic economic conditions and external shocks [28][29]