永恒的朝阳产业,相对的楼市泡沫
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-23 23:11

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese real estate market is facing significant challenges, and while experts have historically been pessimistic, some are now labeling it as a "perpetual sunrise industry" or "everlasting pillar industry" [2] - The real estate bubble is a relative concept, with the core issue being the reliance on land finance, which has inflated land prices and consequently housing prices, leading to a high income-to-housing price ratio [4] - Current estimates suggest that there are approximately 370 billion square meters of housing in China, with urban residents averaging over 40 square meters per person, indicating a substantial housing stock [4] Group 2 - Experts believe there is still room for housing price increases despite the average living space of 40 square meters, highlighting a lack of systematic thinking in the analysis of the market [6] - Comparatively, the average housing area in the U.S. is 67 square meters, and despite higher prices, the U.S. has not experienced a bubble due to significantly higher average incomes [6] - Current housing price ratios indicate that Shanghai's price is 38.5 times the average income, while New York's is 11.0 times, suggesting that the market is not as favorable as some experts claim, but there is an expectation for favorable policies to emerge by 2026 [6]

永恒的朝阳产业,相对的楼市泡沫 - Reportify