铁矿石保持短多中空思路

Core Viewpoint - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices have rebounded due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term price resilience anticipated, while medium-term downward pressure remains due to oversupply concerns in 2026 [1][2][4] Supply and Demand Summary - The current iron ore market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate. Global iron ore shipments have risen, reaching a year-to-date high with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills has decreased by 1.16% week-on-week to 2.2655 million tons, marking a continuous five-week reduction and a year-on-year decline of 1.2%. Steel mills are cautious in purchasing imported iron ore, leading to a 1.2% decrease in inventory week-on-week and an 8.9% year-on-year reduction [1] - Port iron ore inventories have increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 155.1263 million tons, marking a four-week accumulation and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1] Price Movements - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices have shown resilience, with the price of the most suitable delivery warehouse receipt rising by 10 yuan/ton to 796 yuan/ton, and the main iron ore futures contract increasing by 19.5 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton, narrowing the spot-futures spread from 22 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic policy expectations, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and stabilize investment [2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to exhibit a "good start" effect due to the commencement of the 14th Five-Year Plan, alongside potential seasonal weather disruptions affecting supply from the Southern Hemisphere [2] Demand Projections - China's crude steel demand is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant drop in real estate-related steel consumption expected to decrease by 10.4% [3] - Non-real estate steel consumption is anticipated to decrease marginally by 2.0% due to reduced steel intensity in investment, despite potential increases in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [3] - Crude steel exports are expected to rise by approximately 1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% due to optimized export strategies and competitive pricing [3] Supply Projections - Global iron ore supply is expected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with significant contributions from major mining companies [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to add about 20 million tons of supply, while major mining companies like Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG are projected to contribute an additional 29 million tons collectively [3] Market Balance - The supply-demand balance indicates a projected decrease in China's iron ore demand by approximately 27 million tons, with a global oversupply of about 60 million tons expected in the maritime market [4] - Port prices for the most suitable delivery warehouse receipts may test the $85/ton threshold [4]