生猪行情旺季不旺 猪价为何承压？记者调查→

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing an unusual situation where the expected seasonal demand during winter is not materializing, leading to downward pressure on prices. Group 1: Consumer Demand - In southern markets, consumer purchasing volume for pork has significantly decreased despite the season being ideal for producing cured meats like sausages and preserved pork [3] - Current prices for pork cuts are lower than last year, with prices for pork belly at 9 yuan per jin and leg meat at 8 yuan per jin, down by 3 to 4 yuan per jin compared to the same period last year, yet sales volume remains below last year's levels [5] Group 2: Seasonal Factors - The slow decline in temperatures in southern regions has resulted in lower-than-expected demand for cured meats, impacting overall consumption [7] - The timing of the upcoming Spring Festival, which is relatively late next year, has delayed some concentrated purchasing demand, further limiting support for pork prices [7] Group 3: Supply Side Pressure - The pork supply remains high due to previous years of profitable pig farming, leading to an expansion in industry capacity. As of the end of Q3 2025, the national pig stock is at 437 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [10] - The average daily slaughter volume for monitored enterprises in December is 211,200 heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%, indicating that supply remains ample due to high levels of breeding sows and increased production efforts as the year ends [12]