国际金价突破4500美元关口，2026年黄金还会领涨全球资产吗？

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surpassed the $4,500 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 70% since 2025, outperforming most global assets. The sustainability of this bullish trend in gold as 2026 approaches is questioned [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current gold bull market is not limited to 2025, having started its upward cycle in 2016. Prior to 2025, gold prices rose for two consecutive years, with increases of 13.45% in 2023 and 27.39% in 2024 [2]. - In 2025, gold prices accelerated, breaking through significant thresholds of $3,000, $3,500, $4,000, and $4,500 within a year, marking the highest annual increase in years [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, significantly contributing to rising prices. The expectation of increasing global inflation, alongside the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, has positioned gold as a primary beneficiary [3]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding gold for 13 consecutive months. As of late November, China's gold reserves stood at approximately 74.12 million ounces, reflecting both asset allocation needs and strategic significance [4]. Group 3: Changes in Global Asset Allocation - The ongoing increase in gold holdings by major central banks indicates a profound shift in global asset allocation structures. As of the second quarter of 2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves was about 56.32%, continuing a downward trend, while gold's share was approximately 24% and on the rise [5]. - The decline in the dollar's dominance in foreign exchange reserves suggests a potential shift in the global monetary landscape, with the credibility of the dollar's credit system facing significant challenges [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's strategic influence is notably increasing, underpinning the current bull market. The weakening of the dollar's credit system is a key factor driving gold's enhanced international status [7]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold bull markets typically last around ten years. The current bull market, which began in 2016, will reach a critical juncture in 2026, raising questions about whether it will mark a turning point [7].