日本央行“历史性加息”为何难见效

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to raise the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% is seen as a historic adjustment aimed at addressing persistent inflation and stabilizing the weak yen, yet market reactions have been lukewarm, indicating deeper structural issues within Japan's macroeconomic policy [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan is experiencing significant inflation pressure, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in November, marking 51 consecutive months of increase [2]. - Despite nominal wage growth reaching 2.8% in 2024, real wages are projected to decline by 0.3%, leading to reduced household consumption, which is a major contributor to economic stagnation [2]. - The government has intervened in the foreign exchange market multiple times since 2022, utilizing over 24.5 trillion yen (approximately 157 yen per dollar) to combat inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Response - The increase in the policy interest rate to 0.75% has not produced the expected effects, as the real interest rate remains negative when considering the CPI increase [3]. - The significant interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. (with the U.S. federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%) continues to encourage carry trades, with estimated related funds reaching 40 trillion yen in 2024, further pressuring the yen [3]. - The contradiction between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighted by a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen approved just before the rate hike, complicates the economic landscape [3]. Group 3: Structural Issues - Japan faces several structural economic challenges, including a trade deficit projected to reach 5.2 trillion yen in the 2024 fiscal year and a lack of repatriation of overseas profits [3]. - The digital trade deficit is expanding due to Japan's disadvantages in digital technology, raising concerns about the future of service trade surpluses [3]. - The rising financing costs from the interest rate hike may lead to increased bankruptcy risks for small and medium-sized enterprises and exacerbate the financial burden on households with housing loans, which are expected to total 227 trillion yen by the end of 2024 [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Sustainability - Japan's government debt is projected to exceed 1,450 trillion yen by the end of the year, constituting 229% of GDP, which is significantly higher than other developed nations [4]. - Interest payments on government bonds are expected to reach 7.9 trillion yen in the 2024 fiscal year, with further increases in long-term interest rates potentially exacerbating fiscal pressures [4]. - The Bank of Japan's balance sheet is nearing 130% of GDP, indicating a prolonged and challenging path toward normalizing monetary policy [4].