齐盛期货刘旭峰：商品属性接棒驱动，转折点或出现在明年年中

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the commodity attributes of precious metals are expected to replace their financial and monetary attributes, becoming the main driving force for price movements, with an expanding supply-demand gap for silver likely supporting its price [2] Group 2 - The global silver market has experienced a continuous supply shortage from 2021 to 2025, with deficits of 2,468 tons, 7,762 tons, 6,240 tons, 4,632 tons, and 3,659 tons respectively, primarily driven by increasing demand despite a slowdown in global economic growth post-COVID-19 [3] - A structural recovery in silver demand is anticipated in 2026, driven by improved market sentiment and the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, which will increase industrial demand for silver and silver alloy coatings [3] - The U.S. Geological Survey's classification of silver as a critical mineral is expected to further widen the supply-demand gap in 2026, reinforcing the pricing logic based on its commodity attributes [3] Group 3 - A potential turning point may occur in mid-2026, coinciding with the end of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term in May, with expectations that a more dovish successor may accelerate monetary easing [4] - Current economic indicators show that while the U.S. economy is not in recession, manufacturing PMI has been in contraction, indicating potential weaknesses in the service sector in 2026 [4] Group 4 - The long-term influence of the U.S. dollar credit system is weakening, as evidenced by ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, reflecting a diversification demand away from dollar assets [5] - There are multiple risks to consider, including liquidity risks and the potential for inflation rebound, which could alter current market expectations [5] - Investment strategies should focus on upward opportunities while remaining cautious of short-term volatility, with a need to reassess the long-term bullish outlook on silver if the overseas economy stabilizes during a rate-cutting cycle [5]