PTA成本支撑较强

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in PX and PTA futures prices, with PX rising from 6258 yuan/ton to 7272 yuan/ton (16% increase) and PTA from 4378 yuan/ton to 5046 yuan/ton (15% increase) since late October 2025 [1] - The polyester industry is facing a core contradiction due to long-term low production, leading to an expanding PX supply-demand gap expected to continue into 2026 [1] - Polyester apparent demand growth has exceeded expectations, with production reaching 72.87 million tons from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [1] Group 2 - In 2026, the growth rate of polyester production capacity is expected to slow, with an estimated increase of around 4.7% (approximately 4.15 million tons) [2] - The upstream PTA and PX capacity growth is significantly slowing, with PX expected to have zero new production in 2025 and only 3.6 million tons of new capacity in 2026, which will not be operational until the second half of the year [2] - Current PTA social inventory has dropped to around 2.15 million tons, a historical low, and PTA processing fees remain below 200 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply situation [2] Group 3 - December is a traditional off-season for polyester demand, with seasonal weakening of orders in the terminal weaving industry and accelerated inventory accumulation [3] - Rapid price increases in raw materials PX and PTA have led to significant rises in polyester prices, boosting speculative inventory demand in the downstream [3] - There is a potential risk of polyester factories reducing production and lowering load ahead of schedule due to compressed profit margins from rapid price increases [3]