Core Viewpoint - The chief analyst of Qisheng Futures, Liu Xufeng, believes that the commodity attributes of precious metals are expected to replace their financial and monetary attributes, becoming the main driving force behind price movements, with an expanding supply-demand gap in silver likely supporting prices [1] Group 1: Silver Supply and Demand - The global silver market has experienced a supply shortage for five consecutive years from 2021 to 2025, with deficits of 2,468 tons, 7,762 tons, 6,240 tons, 4,632 tons, and 3,659 tons respectively [2] - Despite a slowdown in global economic growth post-COVID-19 affecting demand expansion, the supply-demand imbalance has not been fully resolved [2] - In 2026, silver demand is expected to see a structural recovery driven by improved investment sentiment and the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and computing devices, which will increase industrial demand for silver and silver alloy coatings [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - As of November 2025, the U.S. CPI has decreased to an annual rate of 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.6%, indicating limited risk of significant inflation rebound [3] - The manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, recorded at 48.2 in November, with weak new orders and employment components, while the service sector remains resilient but may weaken in 2026 [3] - A potential turning point may occur in mid-2026, coinciding with the end of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term, with expectations that Kevin Hassett, who is perceived as dovish, may accelerate monetary easing if appointed [3] Group 3: Risks and Investment Strategies - The long-term influence of the U.S. dollar credit system is weakening, as evidenced by ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, reflecting a diversification demand away from dollar assets [4] - The People's Bank of China has shown a slowdown in gold purchases in 2025, raising questions about whether it will pause further accumulation in 2026 [4] - While the macro environment may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term, multiple risk factors, including liquidity risks and potential inflation rebounds, should be closely monitored [4] - Investors are advised to focus on upward opportunities while remaining vigilant against short-term extreme volatility, and to reassess the long-term bullish logic for silver if the overseas economy stabilizes during a rate-cutting cycle [4]
2025期货业盘点｜齐盛期货刘旭峰：商品属性接棒驱动，转折点或出现在明年年中
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-24 00:12