日本财长反复强调“自由裁量权”，暗示美国支持干预日元，不想看到日债崩盘？

Core Viewpoint - Japanese authorities are intensifying verbal warnings regarding the depreciation of the yen, indicating a strong possibility of market intervention, potentially with U.S. approval [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Statements and Market Reactions - Finance Minister Katayama emphasized Japan's "free hand" to take "bold actions" against currency fluctuations, signaling a commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market [1][3]. - Following these statements, the yen showed signs of recovery, trading around the 156 level after previously hovering near 157.49 [1]. - Analysts from Nomura Securities noted that the dollar-yen exchange rate of 160 could be a critical threshold for actual intervention [1][7]. Group 2: Economic Context and Financial Stability - The yen's depreciation and expectations of significant fiscal stimulus have pushed the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to a 27-year high of 2.1%, raising concerns about financial stability [1][8]. - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% has not strengthened the yen, as the market remains skeptical about future tightening measures [8]. - The Japanese government's aggressive fiscal policies, including a potential record budget of 120 trillion yen, necessitate more bond issuance, impacting the bond market negatively [8]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - Mixed inflation data complicates the Bank of Japan's future actions, with core inflation indicators showing both stability and signs of slowing [9]. - The trimmed mean inflation rate for November was 2.24%, remaining above the Bank's 2% target, while other measures showed a decline [9]. - Analysts suggest that if core inflation trends stabilize, the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan could increase, potentially supporting the yen [9].