金瑞期货：铁矿石保持短多中空思路

Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]