拆解招股书，看懂中国大模型独角兽的两种“活法”

Core Insights - The competition for the title of "the world's first stock of large models" is unfolding between two Chinese companies, Zhipu AI and Minimax, with their prospectuses revealing critical business details beyond the title itself [1] - The prospectuses highlight three key dimensions: the quality of real revenue, the pressure of computing costs on profits, and the survival period supported by cash reserves [1] - The prospectuses also show that the two companies are following distinctly different paths in their business models, representing potential breakout directions for Chinese large model companies in the current market environment [1] Financial Performance - Zhipu AI reported a revenue of 312 million CNY (approximately 31.2 million USD) for 2024, while Minimax reported about 30.38 million USD (approximately 216 million CNY) [4] - Zhipu AI's gross margin stands at 56.3%, significantly higher than Minimax's 12.2%, indicating a stark difference in their business models [3][5] - Both companies are in a "high investment for growth" phase, with Zhipu AI experiencing a net loss of 2.96 billion CNY and Minimax a loss of 465 million USD [4] User Data and Market Focus - Zhipu AI primarily targets B-end enterprises and developers, boasting over 12,000 enterprise clients and 4.5 million developers, while Minimax focuses on C-end users with 27.6 million monthly active users [5] - Zhipu AI's revenue structure shows a heavy reliance on localized deployments, contributing 85% of its revenue, while Minimax's revenue is increasingly derived from AI-native applications, which account for about 71% [14][15] Product Structure and Innovation - Zhipu AI's core product is the GLM series, which competes with OpenAI, while Minimax's abab series focuses on interactive and multi-modal capabilities [5] - Zhipu AI's revenue model is primarily based on privatized deployment (84.5%), whereas Minimax operates on a subscription model for AI applications [5] Globalization and Market Strategy - Minimax has shifted its revenue sources from 80% domestic to 73% international, indicating a strong commitment to globalization [14] - Both companies are exploring international markets, with Zhipu AI generating revenue in Southeast Asia and Minimax aggressively pursuing global expansion [17] Cash Reserves and Financial Viability - As of December 31, 2024, Zhipu AI holds approximately 2.457 billion CNY in cash, while Minimax has about 1.046 billion USD, indicating a significant difference in their financial stability [23][24] - Zhipu AI's cash reserves can sustain operations for about 11 months without new financing, while Minimax's reserves can last approximately 37.5 months [24] Risk Factors and Challenges - Both companies express concerns about high survival thresholds in the rapidly evolving AI technology landscape, with Zhipu AI focusing on supply chain security and geopolitical issues, while Minimax highlights its status as an uncommercialized company facing high bankruptcy risks [25][26] - The reliance on expensive computing resources and the significant R&D expenditures exceeding revenues pose financial challenges for both companies [20][21] Valuation and Market Position - The valuation of Zhipu AI and Minimax is approximately 40 billion CNY and 4 billion USD, respectively, which is significantly lower than that of OpenAI, indicating a potential undervaluation in the market [27][28] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with established players like Alibaba and ByteDance posing significant challenges to the market position of Zhipu AI and Minimax [29]