分析人士：钢价或先扬后抑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that rebar steel prices are experiencing a low-level fluctuation, with the main contract operating between 3030 and 3180 yuan/ton, supported by expectations of "anti-involution" policies and strengthening costs [1] - Downstream demand is entering a seasonal lull, limiting the upward momentum of rebar prices, while the basis has weakened [1] - Rebar production is expected to increase due to improved profits from electric arc furnaces and a recovery in high furnace profits, despite a weak demand environment [2] Group 2 - The current supply-demand situation for rebar remains weak, with production from construction steel mills declining as the year ends, although weekly production has increased by 29,000 tons [2] - The central economic work conference has prioritized addressing "involution-style" competition, which is expected to positively influence rebar prices [2] - The steel industry is anticipated to see a contraction in supply by 2025, with flexible adjustments from steel mills leading to improved profitability [2] Group 3 - Despite strong policy constraints limiting crude steel production expansion, steel mills are showing insufficient motivation for proactive production cuts, with a slight decrease in crude steel output expected by 2026 [3] - The demand for steel in the real estate sector is expected to stabilize, while infrastructure continues to support steel demand [3] - The steel market is projected to operate in a weak and stable supply-demand environment in 2026, with prices expected to experience wide fluctuations at a low level [3]