BBMarkets：美国三季度GDP超预期，经济学家却依旧不看好

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy's real GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 reached 4.3%, significantly exceeding the expected 3.3% and up from 3.8% in the previous quarter [3] - Real personal consumption expenditures for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 3.5%, surpassing the expected 2.7% and showing a notable increase from the previous value of 2.5% [3] Inflation and Market Reactions - The core PCE price index for Q3 had an annualized growth rate of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations and slightly up from the previous 2.6% [3] - Following the economic data release, gold prices experienced a decline while the U.S. dollar index rebounded, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] Economic Outlook - Economists express caution regarding the sustainability of the current high growth, predicting a potential slowdown in Q4 due to the impact of a government shutdown that began on October 1, which has adversely affected government spending, business investment, and consumer confidence [3] - The overall GDP growth rate for the year is expected to stabilize around 2%, reflecting ongoing constraints on economic expansion [4] - A more optimistic outlook for 2026 suggests a moderate rebound in the U.S. economy, as economists anticipate improved conditions [4]