申万宏源:首予中国中铁“增持”评级 报表优化 资源板块发力推动估值修复
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-24 01:28

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Railway (00390) is rated as "Buy" with expectations of stable infrastructure investment in 2026, supported by local government debt reduction and central government projects [1][2] - The new signed orders show marginal improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust order backlog that ensures long-term stable growth [1][3] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with mineral resource business revenue reaching 6.223 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.04% year-on-year increase, enhancing profitability and cyclical resilience [1][4] Group 2 - The fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, but the outlook for 2026 suggests stabilization due to orderly local government debt reduction and the implementation of central government projects [2] - The company has a substantial order backlog of 75.4 billion, which is expected to support long-term growth, despite some pressure on traditional infrastructure due to industry impacts [3] - The company’s resource utilization business is primarily focused on mining operations, with leading reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum among domestic peers, contributing to its profitability [4] Group 3 - The company has implemented a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" to improve quality and increase investor returns, with H-shares trading at a significant discount compared to A-shares [5] - The dividend distribution from 2021 to 2024 shows a consistent payout, with the H-share dividend yield at 5.1%, making it attractive for investors [5]