金荣中国：美第三季度GDP高于市场预期，金价扩大回落维持涨势

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on December 23, opening at $4,431.70 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,497.86, a low of $4,428.08, and closing at $4,458.46 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3% for Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations of 3.2% [3] - Household spending was the main catalyst for economic growth, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP, while strong international demand for U.S. products and services added 0.9 percentage points, and public sector spending contributed 0.4 percentage points [3] - Despite concerns about an economic slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, indicating a strong core of the U.S. economy as the year ends [3] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 116.8 and the Expectations Index remaining steady at 70.7, indicating potential recession signals as it has been below 80 for 11 consecutive months [4] - Four out of five components of the overall index declined, with consumers expressing concerns primarily about prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and political issues [4] Investment Insights - Despite the strong GDP growth, concerns remain regarding stagnation in actual business fixed investment, which grew only 1.0%, and a decline in residential investment, leading to a slight contraction in overall private investment [5] - The core indicator of domestic demand, actual private final sales to domestic purchasers, grew by 3.0%, consistent with Q2 growth [5] - The rise in software costs by 5.6% due to accelerated AI adoption has contributed to a 5.1% increase in investment goods prices [5] Economic Commentary - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested revisiting the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target once inflation returns to that level, proposing a range of 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% instead [6] - President Trump praised the GDP data but expressed concerns that good news could lead to market stagnation due to fears of immediate interest rate hikes [7] - The National Economic Council Director highlighted the strong GDP growth as a result of Trump's trade policies and AI investments, predicting a rebound in job growth [7] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has deployed special operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean, indicating potential military actions in the region, particularly against Venezuela [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 1,064.56 tons [8] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 13.3%, with an 86.7% chance of maintaining current rates [8]