全年32次！G10央行“降息潮”已达巅峰 明年加息将被摆上桌面？

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, major developed economies' central banks are implementing interest rate cuts at the fastest pace and largest scale since the financial crisis, while emerging market policymakers are also accelerating their easing policies [1][2]. Group 1: Developed Economies - In 2025, nine out of ten G10 central banks lowered their benchmark interest rates, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and others [1]. - These central banks collectively executed 32 rate cuts this year, totaling a cumulative easing of 850 basis points, marking the highest number of cuts since 2008 and the largest easing since 2009 [2]. - The year 2022-2023 saw a stark contrast, with central banks raising rates in response to inflation driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, except for the Bank of Japan, which raised rates twice this year [4]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - Analysts predict a significant shift in monetary policy for major central banks in 2026, with indications from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia suggesting potential rate hikes [5]. - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with intertwined labor market and inflation dynamics, with expectations that it may maintain or lower rates in 2025 but could face dual risks in 2026 [6]. Group 3: Emerging Markets - In December, 14 out of 18 surveyed emerging market central banks held meetings, with 8 implementing rate cuts totaling 350 basis points, including Turkey, Russia, and India [7]. - The cumulative rate cuts for emerging economies in 2025 reached 3,085 basis points (51 actions), significantly exceeding the 2,160 basis points in 2024, marking the largest easing since the pandemic began in 2021 [8]. - Emerging market central banks have raised rates by a total of 625 basis points this year, which is less than half of the 1,450 basis points tightening in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Future Easing in Emerging Markets - Analysts expect further easing in emerging markets next year, with countries like Brazil and Hungary likely to initiate rate cuts, while others may extend their easing cycles [11].