东吴期货：白银价格持续走高

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent surge in London spot silver prices, which have increased over 30% since November 24, is attributed to macro liquidity easing, supply-demand imbalances, and heightened investment demand [1][3] - The macro liquidity aspect is influenced by the Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year and expectations of further cuts in 2026, leading to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16% and a drop in the dollar index below 100, which enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [1][3] - On the supply side, a structural shortage in the global silver market has persisted for several years, driven by rapid industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI, while mineral supply remains constrained, resulting in historically low visible inventories [1][2] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures market is facing significant delivery pressure due to high physical delivery demands and tight available resources, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increasing its holdings by 760.37 tons (4.98%) since November 21, further straining market liquidity [2] - Policy uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. "232 investigation" results expected on January 17, 2026, are causing market concerns over rising import costs, prompting investors to stockpile physical silver, which exacerbates the tight supply situation [2][3] - In the short term, while silver prices have incorporated a lot of optimistic expectations, the underlying support from the Fed's easing cycle, rigid growth in green energy demand, and ongoing supply-demand gaps remain intact, suggesting that silver prices are likely to stay above $60 per ounce [3]