智观天下丨全球货币政策分化：中国稳中求进，引领新航向

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global monetary policies by the end of 2025 reflects the differences in economic fundamentals, inflation pressures, and policy space among countries, with China providing a stabilizing force for global recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions and Monetary Policies - The U.S. economy is characterized by "weak growth + mild inflation," with Q3 GDP growth slowing to 2.1% and a low unemployment rate of 4.1%, but manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months, indicating weak corporate investment confidence [2]. - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points this year to balance cooling employment with persistent inflation risks, but limited room for further cuts is expected in 2026 due to core inflation remaining above the 2% target and high fiscal deficits [2]. - The European Central Bank has paused its rate cuts since July 2025, entering a "data-dependent" observation phase, as core inflation remains above target despite overall inflation easing, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties affecting energy supply [2]. - The Bank of Japan has accelerated its exit from ultra-loose monetary policy, raising rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in December to address imported inflation and yen depreciation risks, although domestic consumption and high debt levels remain long-term challenges [2]. Group 2: Emerging Markets and Capital Flows - Emerging markets exhibit significant monetary policy divergence, with countries like India and Vietnam maintaining loose policies to support growth, while Brazil and Argentina tighten policies due to inflation and capital outflow risks [3]. - The global monetary policy divergence has led to a restructuring of capital flows, increased exchange rate volatility, and asset price reassessment, with the U.S. dollar index depreciating by 4.2% this year, encouraging capital to flow back to emerging markets [3]. - Emerging market assets are attracting international capital due to higher yields and growth potential, alleviating some financing pressures, but risks of capital flight and asset price declines loom if global risk appetite diminishes [3]. Group 3: China's Economic Resilience and Policy Measures - China's economy demonstrates unique resilience with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by final consumption contributing 53.5% to economic growth [4]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 7.9%, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing investments growing by 12.3% and 10.5% respectively, indicating successful industrial upgrades [4]. - China is implementing a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the central fiscal deficit rate rising to 3.8% and local government special bond issuance expanding to 4.2 trillion yuan to support urban renewal and green transformation [4]. Group 4: Foreign Investment and Trade Initiatives - China is countering external uncertainties through high-level opening-up, reducing the negative list for foreign investment to 27 items and enhancing openness in finance, telecommunications, and education [5]. - Actual foreign investment in China reached 1.1 trillion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with high-tech industries accounting for 38.7% of foreign investment, indicating improved quality in attracting foreign capital [5]. - China is actively promoting the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and applying to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) to lower trade barriers [6].