兴业证券：供需具有利好因素 看好干散货航运未来上行空间

Core Viewpoint - The dry bulk shipping sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle due to various favorable demand factors and limited supply growth, with a gradual increase in freight rates anticipated as demand for shipping volume and distance rises [1] Demand Analysis - The demand for dry bulk shipping is supported by coal, grain, and other commodities, with significant contributions from Guinea's Simandou iron ore shipments and alumina exports, as well as post-war reconstruction efforts in Ukraine and Israel [1] - The Federal Reserve's new interest rate cut cycle is likely to boost global economic recovery and dry bulk demand, with China maintaining a dominant position in iron ore imports, projected to reach 1.238 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 77.5% of global imports [2] - The iron ore supply landscape is shifting, with Guinea's Simandou project expected to ramp up production to 120 million tons per year by 2026-2032, potentially increasing shipping distances due to longer routes compared to traditional suppliers [2] Coal Market - China is the largest coal importer globally, with imports projected at 421 million tons in 2024, representing 30.6% of global imports; however, demand faces pressure due to structural adjustments in supply and competition from domestic coal [3] - Indonesia and Australia dominate coal exports, with Indonesia's CAGR from 2000 to 2024 expected to reach 9.93%, indicating a significant structural shift in the market [3] Grain Market - Global grain shipping volume is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.84% from 2000 to 2024, with soybeans showing a higher CAGR of 5.67%, reflecting changing dietary preferences and increased protein consumption [4] - China's grain imports are stabilizing, while demand from other developing countries continues to rise, leading to a more dispersed geographical demand structure [4] Minor Bulk Cargo Market - The minor bulk cargo sector, which includes various industries such as agriculture and construction, is expected to grow alongside the global economy, with alumina imports in China showing a remarkable CAGR of 29.65% from 2004 to 2024 [5][6] Supply Analysis - The dry bulk fleet capacity has grown from 267 million deadweight tons to 1.064 billion deadweight tons since 2000, with an average fleet age of 12.84 years projected by the end of 2025, indicating a trend towards fleet aging [7] - High ship prices and long order backlogs are expected to limit future supply growth, with the current order book for dry bulk vessels at only 11.04% of the fleet, significantly below the 20-year average [7] Valuation - The dry bulk shipping market is characterized by high volatility and asset intensity, with companies' performance during upturns reflected in their price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, while their resilience during downturns is indicated by price-to-book (PB) ratios [8] - Current valuations show that U.S. shipping companies have higher PE ratios compared to their A-share and Hong Kong counterparts, while A-share companies exhibit higher PB ratios, suggesting potential for valuation recovery in U.S. and Hong Kong shipping stocks as the market enters a recovery phase [8]