估值重塑与价值重估：聚焦创业板2026两大投资主线

Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext Index is expected to lead the A-share market in 2026, driven by strong performance and the dual themes of technological independence and anti-involution, indicating a new phase of valuation reshaping and value reassessment [1][4]. Group 1: Technological Independence - The ChiNext serves as the main battleground for new productive forces, benefiting from policy dividends and industry trends, particularly in the fields of electric equipment, electronics, and biomedicine [4]. - As of December 19, 2025, over 70% of the market capitalization in ChiNext is concentrated in the core sectors of new information technology, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine [4]. - Profit margins in electric equipment and electronics have stabilized, with some tech sub-sectors experiencing profit growth rates exceeding 40%, reinforcing the investment value of the technology theme [4]. Group 2: Anti-Involution - The anti-involution policy aims to correct vicious competition in industries facing overcapacity and price wars, which could catalyze profit improvements in key ChiNext sectors like new energy and manufacturing [7]. - The policy is expected to optimize industry competition by regulating market order and eliminating outdated capacity, potentially improving supply-demand dynamics and stabilizing product prices and gross margins [7]. - Companies are likely to focus more on genuine technological innovation and efficiency improvements rather than mere scale expansion, enhancing free cash flow and shareholder returns [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in ChiNext - The ChiNext Index's valuation has fallen to a low level, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 39 times as of December 17, 2025, which is in the 37th percentile over the past decade [8]. - The expected net profit growth rates for the ChiNext Index are 38%, 30%, and 23% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating strong profit growth certainty [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider ChiNext index ETF products, such as E Fund ChiNext ETF, which ranks high in scale and liquidity among similar index products [9].