加密四年周期新论：我问了七位资深从业者现在是什么阶段

Core Viewpoint - The "four-year cycle" theory in the cryptocurrency market, which has been a foundational belief since Bitcoin's inception, is being questioned as macroeconomic factors and institutional involvement become more significant than the traditional supply-driven narratives [1][9][18]. Group 1: Four-Year Cycle Discussion - The "four-year cycle" is traditionally driven by Bitcoin's halving events, which reduce supply and influence price dynamics [8]. - Some experts argue that the cycle is now influenced more by political and liquidity cycles rather than just halving events, suggesting a shift in how market participants view Bitcoin's role as a macro asset [9][10]. - The consensus among experts is that while the four-year cycle had a strong supply basis in the past, it is now transitioning to a model influenced by market narratives and macroeconomic factors [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and ETF Impact - The current market's reduced price volatility and growth are attributed to diminishing marginal effects of halving events and the significant influx of institutional capital through ETFs [12][13]. - Experts note that the previous cycle was driven by retail liquidity, while the current cycle sees over $50 billion in ETF funds entering the market, leading to a more gradual price increase rather than explosive growth [12][13]. - The consensus is that the halving remains a relevant factor but is now secondary to institutional flows and macroeconomic conditions [13][14]. Group 3: Current Market Phase - There is a divergence in expert opinions regarding the current market phase, with some viewing it as a bear market's early stage, while others see it as a correction within a broader bull market [14][15][16]. - The current market is characterized by a technical bear phase, but macroeconomic conditions have not yet confirmed a full bear market [15][16]. - Many experts believe that as long as global liquidity continues to expand, the upward trend in crypto assets is likely to persist [16][17]. Group 4: Future Market Structure - The future of the crypto market may not follow traditional bull-bear cycles but could enter a prolonged period of upward movement with compressed bear markets, driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors [19][20]. - Experts emphasize the importance of stablecoins and institutional investment as key drivers of future market growth, suggesting a shift towards a more integrated financial ecosystem [19][20]. - The market structure is evolving from a retail-driven model to one dominated by institutional investment, which may lead to different dynamics in asset price movements [24]. Group 5: Altcoin Season and Market Behavior - The absence of a traditional "altcoin season" in the current cycle is attributed to Bitcoin's dominance and a more selective investment approach by institutions [23]. - Experts suggest that while new altcoin seasons may emerge, they will likely focus on a few high-utility tokens rather than a broad-based rally [23][24]. - The market's structure has shifted from a retail-driven attention economy to an institution-driven performance economy, impacting how altcoins are perceived and valued [24]. Group 6: Positioning and Investment Strategies - Many experts have reduced their altcoin holdings and are focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting a defensive and long-term investment strategy [25][26]. - The consensus is to avoid leverage and frequent trading, emphasizing disciplined investment approaches in the current market environment [27]. - Some experts believe that while aggressive bottom-fishing may not be advisable, gradual accumulation during this period could be beneficial [27].