大宗商品圆桌对话：2026黄金“逢低买入”逻辑不变、白银正抢跑通胀风险、明年最大风险点在美国市场｜Alpha峰会

Group 1 - The global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the logic of buying gold on dips remains unchanged for next year, with potential pullbacks expected to be around 10%-15% from recent highs [1][4][20] - Factors that could lead to a pullback in gold prices include overly optimistic economic trends and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, but such pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities [1][4][20] - The copper market is expected to experience a bull narrative in the first half of the year, driven by significant visible inventory in the U.S. and anticipated stockpiling in China post-Spring Festival, rather than economic recovery [4][20] Group 2 - The U.S. market may experience significant volatility next year, which could impact all asset classes, including commodities, presenting potential buying opportunities during downturns [2][24] - The focus for 2026 will be on sectors where supply growth stabilizes after rapid capacity expansion, particularly in the chemical industry, where price responses may lag behind company valuations [16][18] - The long-term outlook suggests that inflation will persist due to rising logistics costs from barrier trade, indicating potential opportunities in commodities [36][37] Group 3 - The influence of the Federal Reserve is expected to weaken, with fiscal policy becoming more dominant, and the dollar's credibility may be at risk, potentially leading to a drop in the dollar index to the 70-80 range [1][5][24] - The AI sector's heavy investment may not guarantee productivity gains, and if the anticipated economic recovery does not materialize, it could lead to systemic valuation declines in traditional industries [5][24][45] - The commodity market is likely to see speculative inventory accumulation when prices drop significantly, increasing the correlation between inventory levels and price movements [41][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape is expected to remain competitive, with countries vying for technological and industrial supremacy, which may lead to ongoing tensions [30][31] - China's food security has improved significantly, reducing reliance on imports, which may mitigate the impact of geopolitical threats on agricultural prices [33] - The internationalization of the renminbi is anticipated to accelerate, with potential implications for commodity pricing and trade dynamics [34][36]