白银狂飙138%，光伏 “去银化”，未来3年银价中枢或下探20%-30%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unprecedented surge in silver prices, driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is reshaping the demand dynamics for silver and positioning it as a focal point in global capital markets [1][3][12] - Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector is projected to reach 6,146 tons in 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 2021 [3] - The financial appeal of silver has increased as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, with historical data indicating that a 1% depreciation of the dollar correlates with a 1.5-2% increase in silver prices [3] Group 2 - Global silver mine production has been declining for five consecutive years, expected to drop to 820 million ounces (approximately 2,580 tons) by 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020 [4] - The cost of silver paste in solar cells has risen significantly, with silver paste costs exceeding 30% of total costs for certain battery types, squeezing profit margins for companies [6] - Various technological advancements are emerging to reduce silver usage, including silver-coated copper and copper plating, which are in different stages of development and production [7][8][9] Group 3 - A potential turning point in silver supply and demand dynamics is anticipated in 2026, with a projected 10% decline in global PV installations and a significant reduction in silver demand growth [10] - The structure of silver demand is shifting, with the photovoltaic sector's share expected to decrease from 18% in 2023 to below 8% by 2030, as alternatives like copper plating gain traction [12] - The global silver recycling potential is expected to increase significantly as the lifecycle of solar panels leads to more silver being recovered from decommissioned units [13] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is entering a new phase of cost reduction, with silver paste costs projected to drop below 5% of total costs, enhancing the competitiveness of high-efficiency technologies [15] - China's photovoltaic industry is reducing its reliance on imported silver, improving supply chain security and impacting the revenue of silver-exporting countries [16] - Future scenarios for silver supply and demand balance suggest varying price trends based on the penetration of silver alternatives, with potential price declines if copper plating becomes more prevalent [17] Group 5 - Investment strategies in precious metals should focus on identifying certainty amid volatility, with attention to changes in COMEX silver inventories indicating potential risks [18] - The surge in silver prices is driving increased demand for copper, benefiting companies in the copper sector as they capitalize on the shift from silver to copper in various applications [18]