邓正红能源软实力：非基本面因素影响油价向上窜动 隐性价值重构不具备持续性

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international oil prices on December 23 is driven by the interplay of U.S. policy soft power, financial soft power due to interest rate cut expectations, and economic soft power reflected in GDP growth, rather than a reflection of global oil supply-demand tensions [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - On December 23, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $58.38 per barrel, up $0.37, a 2.64% increase, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $62.38 per barrel, up $0.64, a 0.50% increase [1]. - The price increase is characterized as a "soft power premium," indicating a temporary spike rather than a sustainable rise, with expectations of oversupply in the market by mid-2026 [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.3%, surpassing the previous quarter's 3.8% and market expectations, driven by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure [1][4]. - This economic data has bolstered market confidence, indirectly supporting oil prices through improved economic resilience perceptions [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. decision to retain oil from a seized tanker reflects a strategic use of soft power to undermine the Venezuelan government while asserting its role as a rule-maker in the international energy order [3][5]. - Venezuela's oil exports, although less than 1% of global supply, are crucial for the Maduro government, highlighting the vulnerability of smaller nations in soft power dynamics [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The oil market is expected to transition from a "resource scarcity" paradigm to one dominated by "rules," with future price movements influenced by the balance of soft power elements, including U.S. economic recovery, OPEC's supply coordination, and emerging economies' green development initiatives [2][5].