华源证券：算力革命与能源革命共振 关注美国缺电背景下电力投资机遇

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI has raised its computing power investment target to 250GW by 2033, while the peak electricity load in the U.S. is expected to exceed 1000GW by 2030, leading to potential electricity shortages in the U.S. due to significantly increased demand [1] Group 1: Power Supply and Demand - OpenAI's computing power investment has been significantly increased, indicating a notable shortfall in U.S. electricity supply and demand [1] - The projected electricity gap in the U.S. by 2030 is estimated to be 182GW or 89GW, depending on whether existing units are retired [2] - Gas and nuclear power are expected to be the main sources of electricity, with gas power being a stable and cost-effective option, while nuclear power's capacity is set to increase from approximately 100GW to 400GW by 2050 [2] Group 2: Grid Investment and Export Opportunities - U.S. grid investment is projected to rise significantly, with expectations of surpassing $30 billion in 2024, driven by the need to maintain grid reliability [3] - China is expected to see a substantial increase in transformer exports to non-U.S. regions, with growth rates of 41% in Q1-Q3 of 2025, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese exports due to U.S. electricity investment growth [3] Group 3: Power Equipment Trends - The trend towards 800VDC power architecture is emerging, with NVIDIA proposing this as a solution to increasing power demands from GPUs, which could enhance power efficiency by approximately 157% compared to 415V AC [4] - Solid-state transformers (SST) are anticipated to become a long-term solution for converting medium-voltage AC to 800V DC [4] Group 4: Domestic Implications - The competition between China and the U.S. in technology may lead to increased computing power investments in China, potentially resulting in a tighter domestic electricity supply-demand balance [5] - If China's AIDC investment aligns with that of the U.S., it could drive a compound growth rate of approximately 1.1% to 1.5% in electricity consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]