欧盟调整禁燃令，减排承诺打折背后的困境

Core Insights - The EU has adjusted its "ban on combustion engines" from a 100% zero-emission target by 2035 to a 90% reduction, reflecting a compromise between climate goals and industrial realities [1][2] - Ford has announced a significant write-down of $19.5 billion, halting production of its electric flagship model F-150 Lightning, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional automakers in the electric vehicle (EV) market [1][5] - The adjustments in both the EU and Ford signal a retreat from aggressive electrification strategies, potentially opening a favorable window for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers [1][6] EU Policy Adjustments - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) has been a key lobbyist for the EU's policy shift, citing low sales of EU-produced electric vehicles and inadequate charging infrastructure as major concerns [2] - The new EU plan maintains a long-term carbon neutrality goal for 2050 but significantly relaxes immediate targets, allowing for a compensation mechanism that permits up to 10% of emissions to be offset through alternative fuels and technologies [2][3] - The policy also introduces incentives for small, affordable electric vehicles produced in the EU, indicating a balanced approach to support both existing industries and the transition to electric mobility [3] Market Dynamics - As of October 2025, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) hold a 34.6% market share in the EU, while battery electric vehicles (BEVs) only account for 16.4%, indicating consumer preference for more practical hybrid options [4] - Ford's financial losses are attributed to the cancellation of electric vehicle models and the closure of a battery joint venture, marking a significant shift in its electrification strategy towards hybrids and range-extended vehicles [5] - Other traditional automakers, such as General Motors and Stellantis, are also pivoting towards hybrid technologies, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [5] Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers like BYD and SAIC MG are experiencing significant growth in the EU market, with BYD's new car registrations increasing by 239.6% year-on-year [6] - The shift in the EU's policy landscape may provide new opportunities for Chinese companies to expand their market presence, leveraging their competitive advantages in cost and innovation [6][7] - The EU's "battery booster" plan aims to develop a local battery supply chain, which could also benefit competitive Chinese component manufacturers looking to establish production in Europe [7] Strategic Implications - Traditional European automakers face the challenge of balancing profitability from existing combustion engine vehicles while accelerating the adoption of hybrid technologies [7] - The evolving landscape necessitates that Chinese manufacturers remain adaptable to diverse technological pathways and market demands [7] - The automotive industry's transformation is ongoing, with the ultimate winners likely to be those who can navigate market dynamics with technological foresight and financial resilience [7]