透视磷酸铁锂涨价：成本倒逼与价值回归

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) processing fees by leading companies is a response to rising raw material costs and market supply constraints, signaling a significant shift in the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain [2][3][4]. Price Adjustments - LFP processing fees are set to increase by 3,000 yuan/ton (excluding tax) starting January 1, 2026, as announced by companies like Hunan YN and Andar Technology, driven by supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs [3][4]. - The price increase is expected to range from 5% to 10%, depending on negotiations with downstream customers [4]. Market Dynamics - The LFP industry has faced a prolonged price decline since 2022, leading to significant profit pressures and calls for a reduction in "involution" competition [3][6]. - The average market price for LFP has risen from 31,800 yuan/ton in June to 41,200 yuan/ton recently, indicating a recovery trend [6]. Industry Position - LFP has become a critical material in the global EV supply chain, with a market share of 81.5% in the power battery sector and a 99.9% penetration rate in the energy storage market [5]. - Chinese companies dominate the global LFP market, holding approximately 95% of the market share as of mid-2025 [5]. Financial Challenges - The LFP industry has been plagued by long-term losses, with major companies collectively losing over 10.9 billion yuan from 2023 to Q3 2025 [7]. - The average cost of LFP production is estimated to be between 15,714.8 and 16,439.3 yuan/ton, while the average selling price has been around 14,200 yuan/ton, indicating a persistent loss situation [7][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has proposed three initiatives to address industry challenges: rebuilding market pricing logic based on cost indices, promoting innovation, and establishing a balanced supply-demand ecosystem [10]. - Companies are encouraged to optimize their cost structures and enhance R&D investments to maintain competitiveness in the evolving market landscape [11]. Future Outlook - The anticipated price increase in LFP is viewed as a necessary correction after a prolonged period of suppressed prices, with expectations of continued demand growth in both the EV and energy storage sectors [8][12]. - The industry is expected to shift from a focus on scale to value creation, emphasizing the importance of core technology and stable supply chains for future competitiveness [15].