诡异的日元：央行喊话干预市场

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high, yet the yen depreciated against the dollar, indicating a disconnect from fundamental economic conditions [1] Group 1: Interest Rate and Currency Dynamics - The yen depreciated by 1.45% to 157.5 against the dollar following the interest rate hike, despite the increase in bond yields [1] - The Japanese government approved a substantial fiscal stimulus plan of 18.3 trillion yen, which may lead to increased bond issuance and impact the bond market negatively [2] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose to 3.452%, while the 10-year yield reached 2.034%, widening the interest rate differential with China [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Policy - Current market expectations place inflation between 2.5% and 3%, while the nominal interest rate is only 0.75%, resulting in real interest rates between -1.75% and -2.25% [2] - The Bank of Japan's cautious stance on interest rate hikes reflects uncertainty amid persistent inflation pressures and economic recovery fluctuations [3] - The Bank of Japan's communication has been vague, leading to negative market expectations for future rate hikes [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market anticipates potential intervention by the Bank of Japan if the yen approaches the critical level of 160 against the dollar [4] - Concerns in the U.S. regarding rising Japanese bond yields suggest potential financial risks that could affect other markets [5] - The Japanese economy's recovery relies on careful management of both monetary and fiscal policies, with market skepticism about the Bank of Japan's commitment to tightening [5]