美国三季度GDP超预期 通胀形势不明 美元继续承压

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy's preliminary estimate for Q3 2023 shows a growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth in two years [1][2] - Personal consumption increased by 2.39% in Q3, with strong performance in non-durable goods and automotive consumption [2] - Private sector investment showed a recovery, improving from -2.66% in Q2 to -0.02% in Q3, although investment in other sectors remained weak [2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, but the quality of the data has been questioned due to missing information [4] - A significant portion of the population feels that the current cost of living is worse than in 2024, with 51% considering the current inflation the worst they have experienced [4] Employment Market - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with indicators suggesting the economy may be nearing a recession [4] - The three-month moving average of unemployment rates is approaching a critical threshold that could signal an economic downturn [4] Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The total U.S. federal debt has exceeded $38.5 trillion, raising concerns among investors about the impact of government debt on economic performance [1] - The U.S. Treasury has issued $23.46 trillion in short-term debt from January to November 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous year [6] Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index has dropped nearly 10% this year, marking the largest annual decline since 2017, as investors demand higher risk premiums due to concerns over national credit [5][6] - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, long-term bond yields remain high, indicating persistent investor anxiety regarding debt costs [1][6]