AI 时代，腾讯可能会吃到“后发制人”的苦头

Core Insights - Tencent is restructuring its AI model development system and has hired former OpenAI researcher Vinces Yao as its chief AI scientist, indicating urgency in enhancing its AI capabilities [25][47] - The company's historical "latecomer" strategy, which has been successful in the past, is now being questioned in the context of AI and cloud computing [26][30] Group 1: Tencent's Historical Strategy - Tencent has relied on a "follow and imitate" strategy to dominate various internet sectors, leveraging its large user base and operational capabilities [28][29] - The company successfully transitioned from a chat application to a multi-faceted internet giant, achieving significant milestones such as surpassing 1 billion QQ accounts and becoming a leader in the online gaming market by 2009 [28][29] Group 2: Challenges in Cloud Computing - Tencent's strategy in cloud computing has been less effective, as it has consistently lagged behind Alibaba, which was the first to capitalize on the cloud market [30][31] - Despite significant investments exceeding 400 billion yuan in R&D since 2018, Tencent's cloud market share has declined from 11.1% in H2 2021 to 7.9% in H1 2025 [31] Group 3: Current AI Landscape - The AI landscape is evolving rapidly, with competitors like Baidu and Alibaba leading the charge in developing foundational models, while Tencent's mixed model has been slower to gain traction [32][38] - Tencent's mixed model, launched later than its competitors, has not yet achieved top-tier performance in global rankings [32][38] Group 4: Future Prospects - The future AI ecosystem is expected to consist of a few dominant players and numerous niche models, raising questions about Tencent's ability to secure a competitive position [44][48] - Tencent's recent restructuring and talent acquisition efforts may not be sufficient to catch up with established competitors like ByteDance and Alibaba, which have already built significant advantages [48][49]