Tai Mei Ti A P P·2025-12-24 09:48Core Insights - The optical communication industry is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges due to explosive growth in computing power demand, with optical modules becoming a critical bottleneck in data center development [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics of the AI optical module market are expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with current supply constraints primarily driven by four key bottlenecks [2][4] - Emerging technologies such as silicon photonics, CPO, NPO, hollow-core fibers, and micro LED communication are attempting to break existing bottlenecks, but face challenges in cost, reliability, and market acceptance [1][10][22] Supply and Demand Dynamics - AI data centers are currently experiencing a severe shortage of optical modules, a trend expected to continue through 2025, with actual shipment volumes constrained by supply-side factors [2][3] - The demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is projected to reach approximately 42 million units by 2025, although inflated market predictions exist [3][4] - Supply-side bottlenecks include shortages of optical chips, optical components, equipment, and skilled personnel, which are critical for production capacity expansion [4][5] Technology Development - Silicon photonics technology is struggling with integration challenges, leading to high costs and low yield rates, which hinder its competitiveness against traditional discrete optical modules [7][8] - CPO technology offers significant advantages in bandwidth density but faces challenges related to integration costs and maintenance difficulties [10][11] - NPO represents a compromise between traditional optical modules and CPO, but its adoption is met with skepticism from traditional optical module manufacturers [12][13] Emerging Technologies - Hollow-core fibers and micro LED communication are highlighted as promising technologies but face significant barriers to commercialization, including high manufacturing costs and integration challenges [22][23][24] - Hollow-core fibers can potentially offer faster transmission speeds and longer distances but require substantial cost reductions to be viable [22][23] - Micro LED technology, while energy-efficient, struggles with performance limitations and the need for a complete overhaul of the existing supply chain [24][25] Market Predictions - By 2026, the optical module market is expected to transition from a state of supply constraints to a more balanced supply-demand scenario, although challenges will persist [5][6] - The industry is at a critical juncture as it approaches the 3.2T era, with significant uncertainty surrounding the technological pathways and potential disruptions to existing market structures [19][20][21]