“对赌”关税终裁？华尔街发明了“新产品”

Group 1 - The legality of the Trump administration's tariff policy is being challenged in the U.S. Supreme Court, with potential implications for U.S. businesses seeking tariff refunds [1] - Financial products related to potential tariff refunds have begun trading on Wall Street, allowing companies to receive prepayments from investors based on expected refunds [1] - If tariffs are deemed invalid and refunds are ordered, companies keep the prepayments while refunds go to investors; if tariffs are upheld, companies retain prepayments without investor returns [1] Group 2 - A CFO from a U.S. toy company reported that a "private market" for selling potential refunds has emerged, indicating a new financial strategy for cash flow recovery [4] - These transactions, referred to as "special situation" trades, are gaining popularity among investors, providing immediate liquidity to sellers in need of cash flow [4] - The recent lawsuit by Costco against the Trump administration seeks a court ruling declaring the tariffs illegal and demands full refunds, highlighting the ongoing legal challenges faced by large corporations [5] Group 3 - The Trump administration's tariffs, enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, have faced legal scrutiny, with previous courts ruling them unlawful [5] - The potential refund amount for businesses could exceed $100 billion, depending on the Supreme Court's ruling [5] - The Trump administration has prepared a plan to reimpose import tariffs if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable [5]