IC平台：全球冲突推升避险需求，金价涨势能否加码？

Group 1 - Gold continues to rise, reaching new highs due to geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty stimulating safe-haven demand [1][3] - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela, along with mixed economic data and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, creates a favorable environment for gold [3] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3%, but consumer confidence remains weak, with the index dropping to 89.1 in December from 92.9 in November [3] Group 2 - The market anticipates multiple rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, driven by slowing inflation and weak job growth [3] - President Trump indicated that his next Fed chair will support significant rate cuts, raising concerns about Fed independence but highlighting the prospect of loose monetary policy [3] - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing a bullish backdrop for its price [3] Group 3 - Gold has confirmed a triple cup and handle pattern, indicating strong bullish momentum [4][7] - The price faced resistance around $4400 but formed a consolidation range, with three cup patterns reflecting stable accumulation and higher lows [4] - The breakout above the $4400 resistance confirms the bullish pattern, suggesting potential price targets of $4800 to $5000 in the coming weeks [7][8] Group 4 - The current strong upward trend in gold is supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and confirmed technical breakouts [8] - The triple cup and handle pattern enhances confidence in the bullish trend, while bullish candlestick patterns indicate further price increases [8] - As long as macro risks persist and rate cut expectations remain dovish, gold prices are likely to continue rising in the upcoming weeks [8]