IC平台技术分析 – 美元兑日元在157.90附近形成双顶后承压下跌

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair has experienced a decline for three consecutive trading days, currently testing the support level at 155.70, which is near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline from 157.90 reflects a bearish double top pattern, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [3]. - Investors are processing the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, which discussed the necessity for further interest rate hikes, while expectations for Fed rate cuts are increasing, putting pressure on the USD [3]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Momentum indicators are confirming a bearish bias, with the MACD falling below its red signal line but remaining above the zero line, and the RSI trending towards breaking below the neutral level of 50 [3]. - The stochastic indicator has formed a bearish crossover from the overbought region, indicating potential further declines [3]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting that the market is in a wait-and-see mode before the next decisive move [4]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - A break below the 20-day SMA could lead to a test of the strong support level at 154.65, which has limited declines for over a month and coincides with the lower Bollinger Band [3]. - If this level is breached, the next targets would be the low of 153.60 from November 14, followed by the lows of 152.00 and 151.60 from October and September, respectively [3]. - Conversely, if a rebound occurs, potential targets include the upper Bollinger Band near 157.27, followed by 157.90 and the six-month high of 158.87 [4].