WLY(SZ:000858) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-24 10:47Company Dynamics - The company participated in the Wuliangye 2025 1218 dealer conference and communicated with management, indicating a proactive slowdown in 2025 to alleviate channel pressure [1] - The company has positioned 2026 as the "Year of Marketing Integrity and Innovation," focusing on balancing volume and price for its core product "Pu Wu" and enhancing market share [1] Comments - The company aims to establish the eighth generation of Wuliangye as the leading product in the 1,000 yuan price segment, utilizing phased incentive policies and volume-price balance strategies to achieve strong market share in the 800-1,000 yuan range [2] - The opening scan rate for 39-degree Wuliangye has increased from 50% to 60%, with banquet activities growing by over 20% year-on-year; the 1618 product is positioned as a protective product, achieving over 30% growth in banquet sessions and opening volume [2] - The company is optimizing traditional channels by implementing reverse incentives for distributors and terminal package incentives, while also restructuring channel supply to resist low-price sales from large wholesalers [2] - In 2026, the company plans to add 100 exclusive stores, bringing the total to 1,700; it will also add 300 "three stores and one" and 10 cultural experience stores [2] - The company is cultivating emerging channels, with direct sales network revenue from corporate clients reaching 4.5 billion yuan and "Famous Liquor into Famous Enterprises" achieving 900 million yuan in sales [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the company will focus on balancing volume and price for Pu Wu, supported by phased subsidies to maintain distributor confidence [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its 2025 profit forecast at 24.84 billion yuan but has reduced the 2026 profit forecast by 6.0% to 22.45 billion yuan due to intensified industry competition [3] - The target price has been lowered by 26.4% to 128 yuan, corresponding to 20.0/22.1 times P/E for 2025/26, while the current price corresponds to 17.1/19.0 times P/E, indicating a 16.7% upside potential [3]