GPT-5被吐槽没进步？Epoch年终报告打脸：AI在飞速狂飙，ASI更近了

Core Insights - The core message of the article is that AI development has accelerated rather than stagnated, with significant advancements in capabilities observed in recent months [7][10]. Group 1: AI Model Performance - Epoch AI tested several open-source Chinese models on FrontierMath, revealing that they lagged behind top global AI models by approximately seven months [1]. - The only model to score was DeepSeek-V3.2, achieving a score of about 2% [4]. - While top models like GPT and Gemini performed well on traditional math tests, their accuracy on FrontierMath was still low, indicating that all AI models struggle with complex mathematical problems [5][6]. Group 2: AI Capability Growth - The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) indicates that AI capability growth has accelerated since April 2024, nearly doubling the previous growth rate [10]. - Contrary to perceptions that AI progress has slowed since the release of GPT-4, data shows that advancements continue, particularly in reasoning abilities rather than just increasing model size [12]. Group 3: Cost and Accessibility of AI - The cost of AI reasoning has dramatically decreased, with token prices dropping over tenfold from April 2023 to March 2025, making AI more accessible to a broader audience [19]. - High-performance AI models can now run on consumer-grade hardware, suggesting that advanced AI capabilities will soon be widely available [22]. Group 4: Research and Development Trends - A significant portion of OpenAI's computational resources in 2024 is allocated to experiments rather than direct training or inference, highlighting the experimental nature of current AI development [25][28]. - NVIDIA's AI computing power has been doubling approximately every ten months since 2020, indicating rapid growth in the hardware necessary for AI advancements [29]. Group 5: Insights on AI's Future Impact - Epoch AI suggests that the majority of AI's value may come from automating routine tasks across the economy rather than solely from accelerating research and development [49]. - The potential for AI to transform industries may occur gradually over years or decades, rather than through sudden breakthroughs [52].