大跌近10%！美元恐创2003年以来“最惨一年”，全球央行政策分化成崩盘推手

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing a historic sell-off due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and hawkish stances from major global central banks, with the dollar index hitting a two-and-a-half-month low and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1][4]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell to 97.767, marking a potential record annual decline since 2003, and the worst performance since 2017 [1]. - The euro has risen over 14% against the dollar this year, potentially achieving its best annual performance since 2003 [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Despite solid US GDP data, market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain strong, with predictions of two more 25 basis point cuts by 2026 [4][5]. - In contrast, central banks in the Eurozone, Australia, and New Zealand are signaling tightening policies, with some markets anticipating rate hikes instead of cuts [4][6]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The weakness of the dollar has led to a rise in non-US currencies, with the British pound and Australian dollar reaching multi-month highs [4]. - The Australian dollar has appreciated by 8.4% against the US dollar this year, while the New Zealand dollar has also reached a two-and-a-half-month high [6]. Group 4: Gold and Safe-Haven Assets - The depreciation of fiat currencies has driven spot gold prices to a historical high, reflecting a trend of capital flowing into safe-haven assets amid global policy uncertainty [4][9]. Group 5: Japanese Yen Intervention Risks - The Japanese yen has weakened despite a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, raising concerns about potential market intervention by Japanese authorities [10]. - The Japanese Finance Minister has indicated that the government has "free hand" in managing excessive volatility in the yen, which has temporarily halted its decline [10].