华尔街用一个词来预测2026年：“岌岌可危”

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is optimistic as 2026 approaches, with major indices like S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recording solid returns despite some policy-induced fluctuations in 2025 [1] - Analysts believe that the upcoming "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will contribute to a large-scale stimulus plan, but maintaining growth conditions is becoming increasingly challenging [1] - The U.S. economy has managed to withstand potential negative impacts from tariffs, immigration policies, inflation, and employment issues, with employers finding a balance despite declining corporate confidence [1] Group 2 - In the AI sector, there is a delicate balance between opportunities and excessive optimism, with large tech companies' annual capital expenditures projected to rise from $150 billion in 2023 to potentially over $500 billion by 2026 [2] - JPMorgan has identified five indicators to assess the risk of irrational exuberance in the AI sector, including capacity, credit availability, and risk concealment [2][3] - The report concludes that while the elements of a market bubble are present, the risk of forming a bubble in the future is greater than the current risk of being at a bubble peak [3] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank highlights that 2026 will not be a mundane year, with internal political divisions in Europe and the potential resurgence of global trade wars posing significant challenges [4] - Concerns about the labor market's precariousness have increased the probability of recession, with recent job growth in the U.S. showing signs of weakness [4] - Goldman Sachs agrees that the labor market is a major vulnerability for the U.S. economy, which could lead to recession, although they remain optimistic about avoiding it [4] Group 4 - Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.8% by the end of 2026, with short-term inflation pressures arising from tariffs and one-time price adjustments related to events like the World Cup [5] - The K-shaped economy is emerging, where wealthier consumers are less affected, while low-income households are financially precarious, indicating a divergence in consumer experiences [6] - Despite various challenges, the overall economic outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of resilience in the face of rising tariffs and labor supply disruptions [6]