Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-24 13:45Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the U.S. economic data for Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by resilient personal consumption, increased public spending, and enhanced export contributions [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is characterized by a threefold "K" shaped divergence, which includes disparities in personal income consumption, varying business conditions between large and small enterprises, and differences between new and old economies [1] - Despite short-term shocks expected in Q4, the overall resilience of the U.S. economy is anticipated to remain strong [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - A preventive interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue, with projections of 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 [1]