国金证券宋雪涛：美国经济的深秋，正在经历“增长的盛夏”和“就业的寒冬”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a dichotomy characterized by "growth in summer" and "employment in winter," indicating a significant structural divide in economic performance [1][4][18]. Group 1: GDP Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3%, while the year-on-year growth rate rose to 2.3%, still below the previous year's 2.8% [2][25]. - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth included personal consumption and net exports, contributing 2.4 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [4][27]. - There is a notable divergence in economic performance, with AI-related investments showing strong growth while traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak despite interest rate cuts [11][35]. Group 2: Investment Trends - AI-related investments, although experiencing a decline in growth rate in Q3, remain the fastest-growing investment category, contributing 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption contributed 1.1 percentage points [7][30]. - The volatility in AI investment reflects a normalization after strong growth, highlighting the difference between "committed investment" and "realized investment" [9][31]. - Traditional sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as durable goods consumption and residential investment, continue to show declining year-on-year growth, raising doubts about the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy [11][35]. Group 3: Consumer Spending - Private consumption is strong overall, but there is a significant disparity within consumption categories, with actual disposable income growth slowing down, leading to increased reliance on wealth effects, declining savings rates, and borrowing [12][37]. - The spending structure shows that healthcare, international travel, and entertainment are the largest contributors, while broader service demand categories like transportation and dining out have not shown significant seasonal improvement [40][41]. - Excluding healthcare and international travel, the growth in narrow service consumption remains stable but does not reflect the overall service sector's rebound, indicating a widening gap in consumption performance [41]. Group 4: Employment Dynamics - The rapid economic growth in Q3 is juxtaposed with rising unemployment rates and a downward trend in non-farm payroll additions, indicating a concentration of growth in sectors with lower labor demand [18][42]. - The divergence in economic indicators necessitates careful interpretation, as productivity improvements may not be immediately evident, and labor market weakness remains a significant concern [20][45]. - The economic outlook for late 2025 mirrors early 2025, with challenges in distinguishing the effects of policy changes and economic stimuli on growth and employment [22][46].