市场狂飙 存储芯片巨头上调报价

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is entering a new price increase cycle, driven by both supply and demand factors, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix raising HBM3E prices by nearly 20% for the upcoming year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global storage chip market is officially entering a new growth cycle, with rising spot prices across the board [1] - Demand for the sixth generation of HBM (HBM4) is expected to increase significantly, leading to a backlog in HBM3E production capacity [1] - Companies like Nvidia, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their order volumes, contributing to the demand surge [1] Group 2: Future Projections - KB Securities predicts that Samsung's HBM total shipments will triple by 2026, reaching 11.1 billion Gb, driven by the surge in ASIC demand [1] - Micron Technology has sold out its entire HBM supply for 2026, with a projected total addressable market (TAM) of $100 billion by 2028, growing from $35 billion in 2025 [2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a "super cycle" in the storage industry driven by AI, with the global storage market potentially reaching $300 billion by 2027 [2] Group 3: Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the DRAM composite price index rose by 47.7%, while the NAND Flash composite price index increased by 9.2% [2] - The price of 512Gb Flash Wafers has seen a cumulative increase of over 20% since October [2] Group 4: Demand Drivers - The current price increase cycle is driven by dual demand from smartphones and servers, differing from previous cycles that were consumer electronics-driven [3] - Companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Google, and AMD account for 95% of HBM demand, with significant investments in AI further boosting demand [3] Group 5: Supplier Dynamics - Apple is increasing its procurement of storage chips from Samsung, expecting Samsung to supply 60% to 70% of the DRAM for the iPhone 17 [4] - SK Hynix and Micron are shifting their production focus towards HBM, limiting their capacity for LPDDR chips, while Samsung maintains large-scale production capabilities [4][5] - Concentrating orders with Samsung may provide Apple with more predictable chip delivery and potential cost savings [6]