人民币汇率破“7”在望

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has entered a strong appreciation phase against the US dollar, with significant increases in the exchange rate observed, driven by both internal economic resilience and external factors such as a weakening dollar index [1][3][5]. Exchange Rate Performance - On December 24, the yuan's central parity rate was set at 7.0471 against the dollar, marking a rise of 52 basis points and the highest level since September 30, 2024 [3][4]. - The onshore and offshore yuan also showed appreciation, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0125 and the offshore rate reaching 7.0013 [3][4]. - Since November 21, the yuan has appreciated significantly, with the offshore rate rising over 1200 basis points since mid-October [4][5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The weakening of the dollar index has created a favorable external environment for the yuan's appreciation [5][6]. - Internal factors include the resilience of the Chinese economy, improved economic data, and seasonal demand for currency exchange as the year-end approaches [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a focus on maintaining a stable exchange rate, which supports market expectations [10]. Market Reactions - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks from currency fluctuations [7]. - The appreciation of the yuan has mixed effects on trade, lowering costs for importers while pressuring exporters due to reduced price competitiveness [7][8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the yuan may continue to approach the 7.0 mark, with potential for temporary breaches, but sustained appreciation will depend on further internal and external factors [9][10]. - The central economic work conference has reiterated the goal of maintaining a stable exchange rate, indicating that significant fluctuations are not desired [10].