别期待人民币升值“一口吃成胖子”

Group 1 - The offshore and onshore RMB against the USD have both reached 14-month highs, with offshore RMB rising 4.4% and onshore RMB rising 3.7% year-to-date, while volatility has dropped to a near ten-year low [1] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is supported by the resilience of the domestic economy and is also driven by the decline of the USD index and the release of year-end settlement demand, boosting market confidence in the RMB's performance [1] - There is a growing optimism in the market regarding the RMB potentially breaking the "7" level against the USD, but it is emphasized that appreciation should be viewed from a multi-dimensional perspective rather than expecting rapid gains [1] Group 2 - Maintaining a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level is crucial, as it allows for dual-directional fluctuations and enhanced elasticity, which can mitigate market pressures and prevent speculative capital flows [2] - The path of RMB appreciation may face challenges due to external factors such as the narrowing space for Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential fluctuations in trade policy during the U.S. midterm election year [2] - The internal economic transition is still ongoing, with a dual pressure of expanding trade surplus and insufficient domestic demand, indicating that the RMB exchange rate is in a dynamic adjustment process [2] Group 3 - Over 30 A-share companies have engaged in foreign exchange hedging since December, demonstrating a rational response to exchange rate fluctuations [3] - Regulatory authorities are encouraged to enhance expectation management and macro-prudential oversight, improving the supply of foreign exchange market tools to help companies mitigate exchange rate risks [3] - The appreciation of the RMB reflects economic resilience, but a gradual and steady approach is deemed more sustainable, emphasizing the importance of aligning exchange rates with economic fundamentals rather than pursuing arbitrary numerical breakthroughs [3]