越南统计总局：越南将于2036年结束“人口黄金期”

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's population will continue to grow over the next few decades, but the growth rate will gradually slow down, with a peak expected around 2059, after which it will enter a phase of slow growth or stabilization [1] Group 1: Population Growth and Projections - Vietnam's population is projected to increase by 2.5%, 12.7%, and 17.0% under low, medium, and high fertility scenarios, respectively, reaching approximately 103.9 million, 114.2 million, and 118.5 million by 2074 [1] - The "golden demographic structure period," characterized by a labor force population (ages 15-64) to dependent population (ages under 15 and over 65) ratio of about 2:1, will end in 2036, three years earlier than previously predicted [2] Group 2: Aging Population and Societal Implications - Vietnam is entering an aging process, with projections indicating that it will become an "aging society" by 2034, when the population aged 65 and above will account for 14% [2] - The aging phase is expected to last approximately 15 years (2034-2049), followed by a "super-aged society" from 2050 to 2074, where the population aged 65 and above will exceed 21% [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Economic Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of leveraging the advantages of the golden demographic structure in the next decade, as it significantly impacts economic growth and national competitiveness [2] - It suggests prioritizing workforce skills training, particularly in digital skills, vocational skills, and technical adaptability, to address the rapid digital transformation [2] - Improving labor productivity, working conditions, and creating a favorable employment environment are also recommended to support economic development [2] Group 4: Societal Challenges - The report highlights the long-standing issue of imbalanced sex ratios at birth and notes that domestic population movement remains a significant factor affecting regional population distribution, reflecting disparities in development conditions and labor attraction capabilities [3]