加息难阻颓势 高市早苗政策被批动摇日元信用根基

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in support for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet reflects growing concerns over Japan's economic policies and the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's monetary strategies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest public opinion poll shows Kishida's cabinet support rate at 67.5%, down 2.4 percentage points from November, with a disapproval rate of 20.4% [1]. - The Japanese yen has been on a downward trend, recently trading at 157.76 yen per dollar, marking a significant depreciation of 20% compared to three years ago [1]. - Following a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.020%, the highest since August 1999 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Economists note that the recent interest rate hike was conservative, failing to instill confidence in the market regarding the government's policies [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's commitment to maintaining loose financial conditions has led to skepticism about the effectiveness of its monetary policy in controlling inflation and stabilizing the yen [3][4]. - The yield on long-term Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high, indicating a lack of investor confidence in domestic bonds [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Kishida's government has approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen to support economic stimulus, with 11.7 trillion yen financed through new bond issuance, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health [5][6]. - There is apprehension among investors regarding Japan's public debt, with projections suggesting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 215% to 230% by 2030 if current fiscal policies persist [6]. - The government's lack of a clear plan for debt repayment has led to market skepticism about its fiscal responsibility [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice next year, potentially reaching 1.25%, but any significant intervention in the foreign exchange market may depend on the yen's performance against the dollar [8]. - The finance minister has indicated that the government has room to take decisive action in response to currency fluctuations, hinting at possible direct market interventions [7].